Macroeconomia Intermédia

Ano Lectivo de 2010-2011

Textos para apresentação de comentários.



Os comentários deverão estar organizados da seguinte forma:

Após a indicação do autor (ou autores) e do título do estudo e do nome dos estudantes, o trabalho deve estar dividido nas seguintes secções:

1 – Indicação dos objectivos do estudo.

2 – Apresentação das hipóteses tomadas pelo autor (ou autores).

3 – Que metodologia de estudo foi aplicada, devendo esta ser descrita.

4 – Apresentação das conclusões a que chegou o estudo com indicação da sua importância.

A apresentação em PPT não deve fugir a esta organização do trabalho e deve ser sóbria e competente.

As apresentações que não obedeçam a este esquema serão fortemente penalizadas. Uma primeira versão do trabalho é entregue na aula da sua apresentação. Apenas se os comentários o justificarem, poderá ser entregue posteriormente uma segunda versão corrigida.



Textos

NOTA: Procurou-se respeitar os direitos de autor de forma que mesmo no caso dos textos que já foram publicados em revistas são aqui indicados na sua última forma de WP. Neste último caso é indicada a posterior publicação em revista.



Business Cycles

1 A. H. J. den Reijer, International Business Cycle Indicators, Measurement and Forecasting, Research Memorandum WO, 689/0211, De Nederlandsche Bank NV, Research Department, June 2002

2 Beate Schirwitz and Klaus Wälde, Synchronization of Business Cycles in G7 and EU14 countries, European Commission, Directorate Genral Economic and Financial Affairs, Economic Studies and Research, Topics in Economic Research, October 2004

3 CBO, Measuring the Effects of the Business Cycle on the Federal Budget, Congressional Budget Office Report, Pub. No. 3206, June 2009

4 Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza, Lucrezia Reichlin, Business Cycles in the Euro Area, Working Paper, 14529, National Bureau of Economic Research, December 2008

5 Ferdinand Fichtner, Rasmus Rüffer and Bernd Schnatz, Leading indicators in a globalised world, ECB, Working Paper Series, 1125, December, 2009

6 Francesca D'Auria, Cécile Denis, Karel Havik, Kieran McMorrow, Christophe Planas, Rafal Raciborski, Werner Röger and Alessandro Rossi, The production Function methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates and Output Gaps, European Economy, Economic Papers 420, July 2010

7 Gadi Barlevy, The cost of business cycles and the benefits of stabilization, também como NBER Working Paper No. 10926 e publicado como "The Cost Of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth," American Economic Review, 2004, v94(4,Sep), 964-990.

8 John P. Cochran, Capital, Monetary Calculation, and the Trade Cycle: the importance of sound money, The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, 7, 1, Spring, 2004, 17-45

9 Máximo Camacho, Gabriel Pérez-Quirós and Lorena Saiz, Are European Business Cycles Close Enought to be Just one? Documento de Trabajo, 0408, Banco de Espanha, 2004 ,(publicado no Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control Volume 30, Issues 9-10, September-October 2006, Pages 1687-1706)

10 Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi and Julien Matheron, Interactions between business cycles, financial cycles and monetary policy: stylised facts, In Bank for International Settlements (ed.) Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy , pages 273-98, 2005. (original as BIS Papers No 22. 273)

11 Susanto Basu and John G. Fernald, What Do We Know (And Not Know), About Potential Output? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2009, 91(4), pp. 187-213

12 The Conference Board’s Business Cycle Indicators Program, Business Cycle Indicators Handbook, June 2001 (Section II Indicator Approach to Business Cycle Analysis; Section III Evaluating the Indicator Approach; Section IV Components and Construction of Composite Indexes)

13 Uwe Böwer and Catherine Guillemineau, Determinants of Business Cycle Synchronisation Across Euro Area Countries, Working Paper Series, 587, February, 2006

14 Zsolt Darvas and György Szapáry, Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Enlarged EU: co-movements in the new and old members, Centre for Euroepan Policy Syudies, CEPS WD, 200, March, 2004



Investment and Asset Prices Determination

15 Allen C. Goodman and Brent C. Smith, Housing Default: Theory Works and So Does Policy, The Federal Reserve bank of Richmond, WP, 10-10, May, 2010

16 Andreas Hornstein, Problems for a Fundamental Theory of House Prices, Economic Quarterly, 95, 1, 2009

17 Arthur Grimes and Andrew Aitken, Housing Supply and Price Adjustment, Motu Working Paper 06-01, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, May, 2006 (mais tarde deu origem a artigo publicado no Real Estate EconomicsVolume 38, Issue 2, 2010)

18 Dybvig, Philip H. and Warachka, Mitch, Tobin's Q Does not Measure Performance: Theory, Empirics, and Alternative Measures, March 2, 2010. (Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1562444)

19 Irving Fisher, The Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depressions, Econometrica, 1(4), 1933

20 John Campbell and Robert Shille, Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook. Ratios are extraordinary bearish, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Winter, 1998

21 Kee Chung and Stephen Pruitt, A Simple Approximation of Tobin's q, Financial Management, 23, 3, Autumn, 1994

22 Lennart Berg and Tommy Berger, The Q Theory and the Swedish Housing Market - An Empirical Test, Uppsala Universitet, WP, 2005-09, 2005 (mais tarde publicado no The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 33, 4, 2006)

23 Matteo Iacoviello and Marina Pavan, Housing and Debt Over the Life Cycle and Over the Business Cycle, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, WP, 09-12, November, 2009

24 Michele Boldrin and Adrian Peralta-Alva, What Happened to the U.S. Stock Market? Accounting for the Past 50 Years, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December, 91(6), 2009

25 Peter DaDalt, Jacqueline Garner and Jeff Donaldson, Will Any q Do? Firm Characteristics and Divergences in Estimates of Tobin's q, June 7, 2002. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=312182 or doi:10.2139/ssrn.312182 (mais tarde publicado no The Journal of Financial Research, 26, 4, December, 2003)

26 Stephen Bond, Alexander Klemm, Rain Newton-Smith, Murtaza Syed and Gertjan Vlieghe, The roles of expected profitability, Tobin’s Q and cash flow in econometric models of company investment, Working Paper no. 222, Bank of England, 2004

27 Veronica Guerrieri, Daniel Hartley and Erik Hurst, Endogenous Gentrification and Housing-Price Dynamics, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, WP 10-08, July, 2010

28 Xavier Gabaix and Augustin Landier, Why Has CEO Pay Increased So Much?, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, February, 123, 1, 2008



Consumption and Final Demand

29 Alberto Alesina and Paola Giuliano, The Power of the Family, IZA Discussion Papers, 2750, August, 2007

30 Alfredo Schclarek, Consumption and Keynesian Fiscal Policy, CESIFO WP 1310, October 2004, CESIFO Venice Summer Institute, Workshoo on the revival of Aggregate Demand Management Policies: Back to Keynes?, July 2004

31 Andreas Fuster and Paul S. Willen, Insuring Consumption Using Income-Linked Assets, Federal Reserve of Boston, WP 10-1, February, 2010

32 Ashoka Mody and Franziska Ohnsorge, After the Crisis: Lower Consumption Growth but Narrower Global Imbalances?, International Monetary Fund, WP, 09-11, January, 2010

33 Athanasios Tagkalakis, The Asymmetric Effects of Fiscal Policy on Private Consumption over the Business Cycle, European University Institute, February 2005

34 Christian Dreger and Hans-Eggert Reimers, The Role of Asset Markets for Private Consumption: Evidence from Paneleconometric Models, Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, 872, Berlin, March, 2009

35 Christopher Carrol, A Theory of the Consumption Function, With and Without Liquidity Constraints (expanded version), NBER, WP 8387, July, 2001 (parcialmente publicado no Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 23-45, Summer)

36 Frauke Skudelny, Euro Area Private Consumption is there a Role for Housing Wealth effects?, European Central Bank, WP 1057, May, 2009

37 George Akerlof, The Missing Motivation in Macroeconomics, The American Economic Review, 97(1): 5–36, March, 2007

38 Gert Peersman and Lorenzo Pozzi, Business Cycle Fluctuations and Excess Sensitivity of Private Consumption, Bank of England, Working Paper no. 335, November 2007 (posteriormente publicado na Economica, 75, 299, 514-523, August, 2008)

39 John Duca, Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: evidence from the UK, Japan and the US, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, WP 1002, May, 2010

40 Marjorie Flavin, Excess Sensivity of Consumption to Current Income: liquidity constraints or myopia?, NBER, WP 1341, May, 1984 (posteriormente publicado no Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 117-136, February 1985)

41 Matthew E. Kahn, Do Environmentalists Practice What They Preach? Environmental Ideology as a Determinant of Voting and Private Consumption Choice, University of California, UCLA, WP, March 2005 (Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=687831)

42 Thomas A. Garrett and Howard J. Wall, Personal-Bankruptcy Cycles, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, WP 2010-010A, March, 2010

43 Torbjörn Becker, Government Debt and Private Consumption: Theory and Evidence, Stokholm School of Economics, WP 71, October 1995



Money and Monetary Policy

44 Anna J. Schwartz, Monetary Policy and the Legacy of Milton Friedman, Cato Journal, Vol. 28, No. 2 (Spring/Summer 2008) (em conjunto com o texto de Arthut Kemp)

45 Arthur Kemp, The Political Economy of Milton Friedman, Modern Age, Winter, 1978 (em conjunto com o texto de Anna Schwartz)

46 Bennett T. McCallum, Indeterminacy from Inflation Forecast Targeting: Problem or Pseudo-Problem?, Economic Quarterly, 95, 1, Winter, 2009, 25–51

47 Edward Nelson, Friedman and Taylor on Monetary Policy Rules: A Comparison, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2008, 90(2), pp. 95-116.

48 Gadi Barlevy, Robustness and Macroeconomic Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, WP, 2010-04, June, 2010

49 George A. Kahn, Taylor Rule Deviations and Financial Imbalances, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, Q2, 2010

50 Giovanni Olivei and Silvana Tenreyro, Wage Setting Patterns and Monetary Policy: International Evidence, Federal Reserve of Boston, WP, 10-8, June, 2010

51 Huberto M. Ennis and Todd Keister, On the Fundamental Reasons for Bank Fragility, Economic Quarterly, 96, 1, 2010, 33–58

52 Jim Wilkinson, Kenneth Spong, and Jon Christensson, Financial Stability Reports: How Useful During a Financial Crisis?, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, Q1, 2010

53 Michael D. Bordo and Joseph G. Haubrich, Credit Crises, Money, and Contractions: A Historical View, Federal reserve Bank of Cleveland, WP, 09-08, September, 2009

54 Nicoletta Batini and Edward Nelson, The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited, Bank of England, Discussion Paper 6, January, 2002 (posteriormente publicado em International Finance, vol. 4(3), 381-400, Winter)

55 Pier Francesco Asso, George A. Kahn, and Robert Leeson, The Taylor Rule and the Practice of Central Banking, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, RWP, 10-05, February, 2010

56 Robert L. Hetzel, Monetary Policy in the 2008–2009 Recession, Economic Quarterly, 95, 2, 2009, 201–233

57 Robert L. Hetzel, Should Increased Regulation of Bank Risk-Taking Come from Regulators or from the Market?, Economic Quarterly, 95, 2, 2009, 161–200

58 Viral V. Acharya, Lasse H. Pedersen, Thomas Philippon, and Matthew Richardson, Measuring Systemic Risk, WP, 10-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, March, 2010

59 William R. White, Some Alternative Perspectives on Macroeconomic Theory and Some Policy Implications, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, WP, 54, July 2010



Inflation, Unemployment and Aggregate Demand

60 Daniel Aaronson, Bhashkar Mazumder, and Shani Schechter, What is behind the rise in long-term unemployment?, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Perspectives, Q2, 2010

61 Ellen E. Meade and Daniel L. Thornton, The Phillips Curve and US Monetary Policy: What the FOMC Transcripts Tell Us, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, WP, 2010-017A, July, 2010

62 Fabio Milani, Global Slack and Domestic Inflation Rates: A Structural Investigation for G-7 Countries, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, WP, 33, August, 2009

63 Howard J. Wall and Gylfi Zoega, The British Beveridge Curve: A Tale of Ten Regions, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, WP, 2001-007B, March, 2002 (posteriormente publicado no Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 64(3), 261-80, July 2002)

64 Jeffrey C. Fuhrer and Giovanni P. Olivei, The Role of Expectations and Output in the Inflation Process: An Empirical Assessment, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 10-2, Public Policy Briefs, May, 2010

65 Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, Inflation Persistence, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, WP, 09-14, November, 2009 (anteriormente publicado no Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110,1, February, 1995)

66 John A. Tatom, What Ever Happened to the Phillips Curve?, Federal reserve Bank of St. Louis, WP, 1981-008A, 1981

67 Luojia Hu and Maude Toussaint-Comeau, Do Labor Market Activities Help Predict Inflation?, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Perpspectives, Q2, 2010

68 Néstor Gandelman and Rubén Hernández-Murillo, The Impact of Inflation and Unemployment on Subjective Personal and Country Evaluations, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2009, 91(3), 107-26

69 Pia M. Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny, Do Immigrants Work in Riskier Jobs?, Federal reserve Bank of Dallas, WP, 0901, January, 2009

70 Riccardo DiCecio and Edward Nelson, The Great Inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom: Reconciling Policy Decisions and Data Outcomes, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, WP, 2009-015B, 2009

71 Robert Dittmar and William T. Gavin, What Do New Keynesian Phillips Curves Imply for Price Level Targeting?, Federal reserve Bank of St. Louis, WP, 1999-021A, e publicado posteriormente em Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 82(2), March/April 2000, 21-30



Stabilization Policies

72 Athanasios Orphanides, Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches, ECB, WP 115, December, 2001, (posteriormente publicado no Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 36, 2, 2004, 151-75)

73 Bennett T. McCallum, Topics Concerning the Effectiveness of Stabilization Policies, Bank of Korea International Conference May 27, 2005

74 Charles Wyplosz, Fiscal Discipline in EMU: Rules or Institutions?, Graduate Institute for International Studies, Geneva and CEPR, WP, April 2002

75 Darrel Cohen, A Quantitative Defense of Stabilization Policy, Federal Reserve Board, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, June 2000

76 Darryl R. Francis,The New, New Economics and Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for Presentation to the Argus Economic Conference Phoenix, Arizona November 22, 1969 (posteriormente publicado na Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Review, January, 1970)

77 HM Treasury, Fiscal Stabilization and EMU, A discussion paper, London, 2003 (section 2+3+4, ou Section 5+6)

78 Jacob A. Frenkel, International Interdependence and the Constraints on Macroeconomic Policies, Chapter 5, in How Open is the U.S. Economy? Proceedings of the Tenth Annual Economic Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 1986 (publicado também em Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Bd. 122, H. 4 (1986), pp. 615-646

79 Janet L. Yellen and George A. Akerlof, Stabilization Policy: A Reconsideration, July 1, 2004 (posteriormente publicado em Economic Inquiry, 44(1), 1-22, January, 2006

80 Jeffrey Frankel, Ben Smit and Federico Sturzenegger, Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Commodity Based Economy, South Africa Project, Macroeconomic Challenges after a Decade of Success, January, 2008 (mais tarde publicado em Economics of Transition, 16, 4, 679–713, October 2008)

81 Joseph Plasmans & Jacob Engwerda & Bas van Aarle & Tomasz Michalak & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo, Macroeconomic Stabilization Policies in the EMU: spillovers, asymetries, and institutions, CESIFO WP1376 , 2005 (posteriormente publicado no Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 53(4), 2006, 461-84)

82 K. Alec Chrystal and Paul D. Mizen, Goodhart’s Law: Its Origins, Meaning and Implications for Monetary Policy, Festschrift in honour of Charles Goodhart to be held on 15-16 November 2001 at the Bank of England (posteriormente publicado em Central Banks, Monetary Theory and Policy: Essays in Honour of Charles Goodhart, Volume 1, P.D. Mizen (Ed.) Edward Elgar, March 2003)

83 Maria Demertzis, Debating Fiscal Federalism in EMU: Plus ça change..., De Nederlandsche Bank and University of Amsterdam, November 2006 (posteriormente publicado em Quantitative Economic Policy - Advances in Computational Economics, 2008, 20, 3, 157-84)

84 Michael Bordo, The Gold Standard, Bretton Woods and Other Monetary Regimes: A Historical Appraisal, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, March/April, 1993

85 Nathan D. Grawe, A Simulation of Counter-cyclical Intervention: Lessons for Theory and Practice, The Journal of Economic Education, 38, 4, 2007, 371-92

86 Roberto Perotti, Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: A Framework and Some Questions, The World Bank, Policy Research WP, 4365, September, 2007

87 Steve Ambler, Price-Level Targeting and Stabilization Policy: A Survey, Journal of Economic Surveys, 23, 5, 25 SEP 2009 (previamente publicado como Price-Level Targeting and Stabilization Policy: A Review, Discussion Paper/Document d’analyse, Bank of Canada, 2007-11)

88 Torben Andersen, Is There a Role for an Active Fiscal Stabilization Policy?, CESIFO WP 1447. April, 2005

89 Wallace Oates, Fiscal Federalism and European Union: some reflections, XIV Conferenza Società Italiana di Economia Pubblica, October, 2002



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