Resumo:

No trabalho que serve de base a esta comunicação, procurou-se analisar o processo de aglomeração entre as sete regiões portuguesas, tendo em conta os mais recentes desenvolvimentos teóricos ao nível da Nova Geografia Económica, nomeadamente. O estudo faz uma análise econométrica em painel tentando identificar as causas da aglomeração. Como conclusão sumária, de mencionar que Lisboa e Vale do Tejo é uma região que apresenta condições muito plausíveis, à luz da teoria da Nova Geografia Económica, para concentrar a população e a actividade económica.

December 13

Speaker: Vítor Castro (FEUC)

Title: Political Business Cycles and Inflation Stabilization

Abstract:

When the decision regarding the anchor of stabilization is included in models of political business cycles, there is room for political opportunism of policymakers. The different business cycles associated with exchange rate-based (ERBS) and money-based stabilizations (MBS) imply that the decision regarding the timing and nominal anchor of stabilization may be affected by the timing of elections. Namely, an opportunistic policymaker is more likely to implement an ERBS than a MBS before elections, while the opposite happens after elections. Empirical results obtained when estimating a multinomial logit model for a sample of 10 countries and 35 stabilization programs clearly support this hypothesis.

                            2003 

March 5

Speaker: Catarina Cardoso (Instituto Politécnico de Setúbal))

Title: Explaining the sources of economic growth in Portugal and Ireland. A comparative analysis.

Abstract:

The propose of this paper is twofold: firstly, to identify the sources of growth in Ireland and Portugal, and secondly, to explain the remarkable recovery of the Irish economy, especially in the nineties, and what are the lessons for Portugal from that positive experience in Ireland. The sources of growth can be identified by a decomposition approach of the growth of per capita income. The most important contribution comes from productivity growth which is much more higher in Ireland. From the analysis of export-led models and applications of Thirlwall´s Law becomes clearer the superiority of Ireland in terms of competitiveness. It is shown that Ireland has the advantage to grow faster without facing any demand constrains, due to lower import penetration and higher export growth. Portugal is not in such a position and can face problems in the balance of payments in the near future that can constrain growth. The convergence approach shows that Portugal converges moderately to the EU standards, in terms of per capita income and productivity. The convergence rate is stronger in Ireland especially with respect to the USA. Finally, the Irish economic recovery can be explained by higher accumulation of technological and human capital and not physical capital as happens with Portugal.  

March 26

Orador: Dr. Ricardo Sousa (Universidade do Minho)

Tema: Propriedade de Acções e Efeito Riqueza sobre o Consumo

Resumo:

As recentes flutuações dos mercados financeiros, em particular, dos mercados accionistas, fizeram renascer o interesse pelo papel que estes desempenham na dinâmica da actividade económica real, em particular, do consumo. Neste trabalho, é revista o papel do mercado de acções enquanto determinante do consumo privado, por via da geração de efeitos riqueza. São ainda analisadas as diferenças potenciais destes efeitos originadas pelo tipo de propriedade (directa versus indirecta) de acções. Utilizando dados amostrais relativos à economia norte-americana para o período 1952:Q1 – 2001:Q4, estimaram-se várias relações de longo-prazo que sugerem que os efeitos riqueza associados à propriedade directa de acções são cerca de 3.5 vezes superiores aos da propriedade indirecta. Por seu turno, a dinâmica de curto-prazo é analisada com o recurso à estimação de uma equação individual, sugerindo que o consumo responde contemporaneamente às variações do rendimento e da riqueza e que o ajustamento à componente de longo-prazo é muito lento, o que constitui um indicativo de que os consumidores alteram a sua despesa de forma gradual, possivelmente, devido à existência de hábitos formados e sugere a presença do canal indirecto do efeito riqueza.

April 9

Speaker: Fátima Sol (FEUC)

Títle: The Portuguese Money Market: An analysis of the daily session

Resumo:

We use intra-daily data related to the Portuguese Money Market to analyse the evolution of the volume of operations, interest rate and interest rate volatility throughout the daily market session. We find a pattern in the volatility, which differs according to the stage of the reserves maintenance period. The interest rate volatility does not show a U-shaped pattern across the trading day, which we explain through features of the Single Monetary Policy.

April 30

Speaker:  Elias Soukiazis (FEUC)

Title: Regional Convergence in Portugal

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to explore different approaches which are commonly used to measure convergence in per capita income among the Portuguese regions. The empirical study uses the familiar approaches of s-sigma and b-beta convergence (absolute and conditional) based on a cross section analysis. s-sigma convergence intends to measure the dispersion of per capita income across the Portuguese regions over time. Absolute convergence tests the hypothesis of a negative relationship between the growth of per capita income and the initial level. According to the neo-classical theory this negative relationship is evidence that poor economies grow faster than rich economies because of diminishing returns to capital characteristics. Conditional convergence, on the other hand, testes the hypothesis that convergence in per capita income is due to structural changes, by transferring resources from less productive (agriculture) to more productive activities (industry and services). Important structural variables, such as capital accumulation, human capital qualification, I&D and trade are, among others, conditioning factors that explain real convergence. The comparison of the different approaches leads to interesting and consistent results suggesting that absolute convergence in per capita income among the regions in Portugal is slower than conditional convergence. 

May 8

Speakers: Elias Soukiazis (FEUC) and Vítor Castro (FEUC)

Title: The Impact of the Stability Pact on Growth and Unemployment

Abstract:

This paper makes an attempt to measure the direct effects of the Maastricht criteria on growth and unemployment performance for the EU countries, covering the period 1980-2001. The evidence from a panel empirical analysis suggests that growth was negatively influenced by the imposition of the Maastricht criteria, showing a fall of 0.5 percentage points on the growth of real output. Estimating separately the pre-Maastricht and post-Maastricht periods we reveal that the increment of public debt affects equally both periods, but the negative effects of the public deficit ratio and inflation rate are stronger in the pre-Maastricht period. Exchange rate stability has the expected positive effect on growth but interest rate has not any influence on growth. The unemployment analysis through growth confirms the idea that unemployment follows the economic cycle and that the fall in unemployment due to growth of real GDP is less in the post-Maastricht period. Our argument is that the Maastricht criteria were unfavourable to growth and unemployment performance in Europe and that a more flexible Stability Pact is needed to stimulate aggregate demand and productive investment in order to achieve full employment and higher economic activity.

June 4

Oradora: Dra. Ana Margarida Monteiro (FEUC)

Tema: Obtenção de probabilidades de risco neutro a partir de preços de opções: uma abordagem envolvendo um problema de programação quadrático e convexo

Abstract:

Apresentamos um método para a obtenção de uma função de densidade de probabilidade de um activo subjacente,  a partir de preços de opções. Usámos splines cúbicas para estimar esta função considerando um problema de mínimos quadrados. Obtivemos um problema de optimização quadrático e convexo.    Procurámos  testar este método usando dados de preços de opções de acordo com  a fórmula de Black-Scholes  e ainda dados  relativos ao índice SPX500,  fornecidos pelo CBOE.

October 31

Orador: Eng. Elias Silva (Empresário e Mestre em Economia e Estratégia Industrial)

Tema: Problemas estruturais da indústria transformadora de metais não ferrosos portuguesa - uma análise empírica de produtividade e competitividade

Resumo:

A indústria de produtos metálicos portuguesa, constitui a partir de 1996 o primeiro sector exportador, lugar tradicionalmente ocupado pelos têxteis, vestuário e couro. Neste sentido, a indústria transformadora de metais não ferrosos (MNF) portuguesa, sector onde as exportações representam em média cerca de 60% da produção, contribui de forma decisiva para este facto. O estudo empírico realizado teve como base os dados de 41 empresas transformadoras de MNF portuguesas, no período de 1997 a 2000. Foi, assim, possível constituir uma base de dados em painel que possibilitou estudar aspectos interessantes relacionados com os rendimentos à escala, a natureza endógena dos factores de produção e o comportamento do investimento num sector exportador por excelência. Como principal ilação deste estudo, de referir que o sector deverá de uma forma crescente incorporar nas suas estratégias os chamados factores dinâmicos de competitividade, melhorando a qualidade do seu capital humano, a qualidade dos seus produtos, a sua posição face ao ambiente e a atenção permanente à inovação. É primordial uma especialização na produção de produtos transaccionáveis com alta elasticidade da procura no mercado internacional, procurando, deste modo, ganhar quotas nas exportações, cujo crescimento se reflectirá positivamente no aumento da produção (uma vez que o efeito acelerador é superior), na realização de novos investimentos e em maiores ganhos de produtividade.

November 14

Orador: Vítor Martinho (Instituto Politécnico de Viseu)

Tema: Os rendimentos crescentes à escala e o processo de aglomeração em Portugal: uma análise empírica não linear

Resumo:

No trabalho que serve de base a este Seminário procurou-se analisar o processo de aglomeração nas regiões portuguesas, utilizando formas reduzidas não lineares dos modelos de Krugman (1991) e de Thomas (1997), sendo o modelo de Thomas uma extensão do modelo de Krugman. Nestes modelos a ideia base é que onde há rendimentos crescentes à escala há aglomeração. Com o objectivo de confirmar a existência de rendimentos crescentes à escala em Portugal, estruturou-se o referido trabalho em cinco partes. Na primeira parte faz-se uma breve introdução, onde são referidas algumas contribuições teóricas, relacionadas com as áreas da aglomeração que geralmente estão associadas à Nova Geografia Económica; na segunda parte são apresentados os fundamentos teóricos dos modelos de Krugman e de Thomas; na terceira parte são examinados os dados estatísticos considerados, obtidos na base de dados Regio (2000) das estatísticas do Eurostat, para o período de 1987 a 1994 e nas Contas Regionais (2003) do INE, para o período de 1995 a 1999; na quarta parte são exibidas as estimações realizadas com as formas reduzidas não lineares dos modelos descritos anteriormente; e na quinta parte são enunciadas as principais ilações obtidas com a realização deste trabalho. De referir, como conclusão sumária, que com este trabalho provou-se a existência de baixos custos de transporte e de rendimentos crescentes à escala nas regiões portuguesas e como tal a existência de aglomeração regional em Portugal.

November 28

Speaker: Marta Dias (Universidade de Aveiro)

Title: Does Firm Size Matter For Investment And R&D? Evidence From  Panel Data Of Manufacturing Firms In The Portuguese Economy

Abstract:

All the arguments regarding the difficulty of using external finance for R&D should apply most strongly to small firms, because such firms have access to a narrower range of capital instruments. However virtually all the empirical evidence linking liquidity constraints inversely to firm size has been restricted to the United States, the United Kingdom and a few other countries A good justification for that are the common features of the Anglo-Saxon financial system of those countries often described as “market-based”. Therefore, we may construct different expectations about the relation between liquidity constraints and firm size in countries with a “bank-based” financial system. The purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between firm size and liquidity constraints in the Portuguese manufacturing industry. The results indicate that firm size is not relevant for liquidity constraints even though the total sample shows a great dependence from internal liquidity.

December 5

Speaker: João Gata (Universidade de Aveiro & UECE/ISEG-UTL, Portugal)

Title: Environmental Regulation and Technological Innovation with Spillovers

Abstract:

This paper examines several issues pertaining to technology-forcing regulation in the context of automobile emissions control. We present a two-period dynamic model of standard setting under asymmetric information to model the attempts by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) in getting car manufacturers to comply with its phase-in of stringent emission standards. CARB chooses an initial emission standard that firms are required to comply with, automakers respond by choosing R&D investment and production levels, which provide CARB an imperfect signal whether they are more or less capable of complying with the standard. CARB resets the environmental standard and the firms once again choose research and production levels. Firms are duopolists in the product market and can choose to do research no cooperatively or cooperatively in the presence of R&D spillovers. Consumers are willing to pay a higher price for lower emission vehicles. We show that firms will behave strategically and under invest in research both under competitive and cooperative R&D, though the level of under investment - the ratchet effect - is greater under cooperative R&D when spillovers are large. We then consider the case when firms are allowed to self-regulate, i.e., choose a common emission standard voluntarily, and show that even though they invest more in cost-reducing R&D, the emission standard set is lower than under technology-forcing regulation, resulting in a lower industry output and lower social welfare, even though industry profits are predictably higher. Finally, we consider the case where CARB can pre-commit to a unique emission standard, and we examine its social welfare implications. The pre-commitment scenario is shown to be particularly advantageous for consumers. A full information scenario provides a benchmark. Through simulations, we provide a comparative characterization of the social welfare properties of the different scenarios. A similar analysis can be transposed to the European Union context.

December 14

Oradora: Raquel Silva (Universidade de Aveiro)

Tema: Contágio de Crises Monetárias em Economias Emergentes

Resumo:

Neste trabalho testo a existência de contágio de crises monetárias entre economias emergentes. A definição de contágio esta interligada com o aumento da probabilidade de um ataque especulativo à moeda de um país, resultante da existência de um ataque especulativo (não necessariamente bem sucedido) numa outra economia. A questão reside em saber se a incidência de uma crise monetária num dado país, num determinado momento do tempo, está relacionada com a incidência de uma outra crise monetária num outro país, no mesmo momento do tempo, tendo em conta variáveis macroeconómicas, financeiras e políticas internas. A metodologia usada para testar se efectivamente há transmissão dos efeitos de crises monetárias entre economias consiste na estimação de um modelo probit, em que a variável dependente é a existência de crise. Os resultados obtidos, quer para o modelo simples quer para o modelo com canais de contágio, comprovam a existência de contágio em economias emergentes.

                            2004

March 5

Speaker: Pedro André Cerqueira (FEUC and European University Institute)

Title: How Pervasive is the World Business Cycle?

Abstract:

The paper tries to find if the business-cycle fluctuations across countries are due to a single world business cycle or due to a diversity of regional business cycles. To answer this question I used an approximate factor model methodology to estimate the common components in business cycle indexes built from macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption and investment). This methodology does not impose any apriori hypothesis about regional composition. If regional business cycles exist, the region composition would be estimated from the data used. The study was done for two different samples: the OECD countries and a 59-country sample. The results indicate that the world business cycle is an important factor of volatility for most developed countries. For developing countries the picture is rather mixed: it is important for some, but not for others. Also, there was little evidence of regional cycles as they are not stable through time. It seems that some countries cluster together in some periods but not in others.

March 19

Oradora: Micaela  Antunes ( FEUC)

Tema: A evolução das desigualdades regionais em Portugal a nível de NUTS III. Uma análise empírica com base nos processos de convergência

Resumo:

Este estudo pretende testar a hipótese da convergência regional em Portugal a nível de NUTS III (no período global 1991-2000), quer para o rendimento per capita, quer para o produto por trabalhador, através da análise “cross-section” e da abordagem em painel. Analisa se ao mesmo tempo o impacto de factores estruturais sobre a convergência condicionada entre as 30 regiões portuguesas.

May 21

Orador: José Murteira (FEUC)

Title: Estimation of Default Probabilities Using Incomplete Contracts Data

Resumo:

Neste trabalho considera-se um modelo beta-binomial para estimação dos condicionantes do número de prestações não pagas por clientes devedores de um banco (de um total de n prestações, vencidas antes do momento de recolha dos dados). As estimativas obtidas podem utilizar-se para calcular a probabilidade de incumprimento (e suas determinantes) uma vez que, no caso considerado, a instituição financeira tolera um certo número de prestações não pagas, antes de classificar um cliente como defaulter. Uma vantagem do método adoptado reside na possibilidade de se utilizar dados sobre contratos de crédito ainda não terminados, para estimar o risco de um cliente se tornar defaulter. Esta abordagem pode tornar-se particularmente útil em situações de population drift.

2005

January 21

Speakers: Micaela Antunes and Elias Soukiazis(FEUC)

Comments: Pedro Ramos (Faculty of Economics, Coimbra)

  Title: Two speed regional convergence in Portugal and the importance of  structural funds on growth

  Abstract

The aim of this paper is twofold: in first place we want to ascertain if there is any difference in the convergence process between the “Littoral” (coastal) and the “Interior” (inland) areas in Portugal in terms of per capita income. In second place, we examine the relevance of Structural Funds (European Regional Development Funds) as conditioning factors influencing the convergence process in Portugal and to what extent these funds contributed to the growth of regional per capita income. In doing so, we apply a panel data approach to the convergence in per capita income among the 30 NUTS III regions in Portugal, and a separate analysis is given for the regions constituting the “Littoral” and “Interior” zones. The evidence shows that the distinction between the “Littoral” and “Interior” areas is important in the convergence process in Portugal and that convergence is slightly faster in the regions of the “Interior”. On the other hand, structural funds have a significant positive effect only in the “Littoral” area helping these regions to grow faster.

 February 4

Speakers: Sara Proença(Escola Superior Agrária, Coimbra) and Elias Soukiazis(FEUC)

Comments: Eduardo Castro (University of Aveiro)

  Title: Demand for Tourism in Portugal: A Panel Data Approach.

Abstract

The tourism activity in Portugal is responsible for about 8% of the national product and employs 10% of the total labour force. On the other hand the receipts from tourism contribute substantially in financing the current account deficit of the balance of payments in this country. These are convincing arguments to justify the analysis of the determinants of the demand for tourism in Portugal and might constitute an important guide-line for the policy making institutions.

       Empirical studies on this field for Portugal have shown little attention in modelling appropriately the demand function for tourism and identifying the main sources of tourism flows. The majority of studies takes into account the demand side determinants of tourism usually proxied by income and price measurements and few attention has been given to the supply factors which might influence the tourism performance substantially. Factors like, infrastructures in networks and accommodation capacity in the hosting country have been ignored in such studies. On the other hand, the empirical analysis is mainly concentrated in time-series estimations for separate countries being potential suppliers of tourism and panel data estimations are exceptional.

        The purpose of this study is to bring into account the above elements were little attention has been given in the empirical literature. First, we use a combination of time series and cross sectional data (panel data techniques) to estimate the demand function of tourism in Portugal, by considering four main countries as the basic tourism suppliers, Spain, Germany, France and the U.K., responsible for almost 90% of the total tourism inflows in this country. Second, in the demand function we introduce, both, the demand factors (per capita income, relative prices) and the supply factors (public investment ratio, capacity accommodation) to explain tourism performance in Portugal. Third, dynamic panel data techniques are used to estimate the demand function of tourism, avoiding misspecification errors and estimation inconsistency and overall explaining the adjustment process of tourism performance.

       Our empirical analysis shows that per capita income is the most important demand determinant and capacity accommodation the most important supply determinant explaining the tourism movement in Portugal. The dynamic panel data estimation highlights the importance of the capacity accommodation as the most important factor in attracting more tourism in Portugal. It is also shown that the adjustment process is slow and that more flows of tourism into the country is a difficult task without improving the supply characteristics of the sector.  

February 18

Orador: Vitor Martinho (Escola Superior Agrária, Viseu)

Comentários: António Alberto Santos (FEUC)

Título: Análise dos Efeitos Espaciais na Produtividade Sectorial entre as Regiões Portuguesas

  Resumo

A consideração de efeitos espaciais a nível regional é cada vez mais frequente e para isso, entre outros, contribuiu o trabalho de Anselin (1988). Pelo que neste estudo analisa-se, através de métodos de estimação “cross-section, a influência dos efeitos espaciais na produtividade (produto por trabalhador) dos sectores económicos das NUTs III de Portugal Continental, de 1995 a 1999, considerando a relação de Verdoorn. Pela análise dos dados, considerando a estatística Moran´s I, constata-se que a produtividade está sujeita a autocorrelação espacial positiva (a produtividade de cada uma das regiões evolui de forma semelhante à produtividade das regiões vizinhas), sobretudo, nos serviços. A totalidade dos sectores e eventualmente a indústria apresentam indícios de estarem sujeitos a autocorrelação positiva na produtividade. Tendo em conta os resultados das estimações, verifica-se que os efeitos “spillovers” espaciais “spatial lag” (captam autocorrelação espacial através da variável dependente desfasada espacialmente) e “spatial error” (captam autocorrelação espacial através do termo de erro desfasado espacialmente) influenciam a relação de Verdoorn quando esta se aplica aos sectores económicos das regiões portuguesas.

April 1

Oradora: Tânia Constâncio (FEUC)

Comentários: Alfredo Marques (FEUC)

RESUMO:
O objectivo deste estudo é conhecer os efeitos dinâmicos da integração ao nível da produção, sendo utilizados dois métodos diferentes. O primeiro consiste na construção de um modelo anti-mundo, de modo a conhecer a produção existente se Portugal não tivesse aderido à CEE. O segundo consiste numa análise com base em regressões, de modo a conhecer-se a produção existente pós-Maastricht, através de uma projecção baseada na produção real entre 1979 e 1992. Depois de obtida a produção normal para cada um dos períodos, a comparação com a produção real permite conhecer os sectores beneficiados e prejudicados pela integração. Os resultados obtidos indicam que, após a adesão, o número de sectores beneficiados foi superior ao número de sectores prejudicados, o que é acentuado no período pós-Maastricht.

June 17

Speaker: Miguel Martínez Panero - Univesidad de Valladolid

Títle: Voting in the European Union Council of Ministers: A comprehensive framework


Abstract:
Both last and future enlargements of Member States in the European Union, as well as the Draft of its Constitution, have a great impact on the decision making procedures to be used in several of its institutions and bodies. The main of them is the Council of Ministers, with one representative of each Member State. Of course, unanimity would be an ideal horizon (“consensus culture”), but this goal is very difficult because of the heterogeneity of the represented States. Thus, a qualified majority system was performed in order to weigh their political or demographic relevance, but these aspects ought to be balanced with country sovereignty. In this way, the Treaty of Amsterdam (1997) introduced a double majority voting method in the Council for achieving the back of both States and Peoples. The Treaty of Nice (2001) even advocated for another decision filter in addition of the number of states and established weights for them. However, the Draft of the Constitution returns to a double key system.
Taking into account this variety, we carry out a structural analysis of possible qualified and double majorities in a comprehensive theoretical framework, paying special attention to the current voting systems in the Council as well as those rejected in the past or possible in the future. Even more, a decisional hierarchy among them is shown, and reasonable ways to extend these majorities to more than two alternatives are also suggested. 

2006

May 3

Speaker: Pedro André Cerqueira (FEUC)

Title: International Real Business Cycles and R&D.

Abstract:
For long in a number of fields, including the international business cycle literature, the existence of a set of differentiated products has been used in theoretical models. However, even if authors have used this idea, the introduction of an explicit sector that introduces new varieties has not received much attention. This paper proposes a model where a R&D sector is introduced in a international business cycle framework and looks to see how the co movements across countries differ when the technological shocks hitting the economies are in the R&D sector rather than in the production sector. It, also, shows which combinations of shocks in both sectors and parameters can solve the price and the consumption correlation puzzles.
 

May 10

Speakers: Elias Soukiazis and Túlio Cravo (FEUC)

Title:What type of human capital better explains the convergence process among countries.
 
Abstract:
This paper examines the convergence process across different countries for the period 1980-2000, using various concepts of convergence and giving special attention to the role of human capital as a conditioning factor to growth. The originality of the study is in the use of new proxies for human capital, such as, publication ratio, patents ratio and the patents/articles ratio which all reflect the efficiency of the scientific work, in contrast to the quantitative measures of human capital usually used in the growth literature. The whole analysis suggests that: (i) convergence is conditional rather than absolute, (ii) the new proxies of human capital control fairly well the different steady-states among countries, augmenting the convergence rate, (iii) the different levels of human capital affect differently the prosperity of countries according to their levels of development. Higher levels of human capital affect more efficiently the more developed countries than the less developed countries. Therefore, human capital improvements have to be progressive.
 

July 5

Speakers: Elias Soukiazis and Rodrigo Martins (FEUC)

Title:Elections, Political Spillovers and Economic Performance in the EU
 
Abstract:
The main purpose of this study is to search whether elections affect the economic performance of the EU(15) countries. It has been largely argued that elections induce political instability that influences the macroecomic outcomes of the national economies. Political changes through national elections, ideology of the government with left-wing or right-wing orientation, composition of the government (unique party or coalition), electoral spillovers, among others, are important issues that define political stability and influence economic performance. In a process of growing economic and political integration, local electoral cycles in Europe may have spillover effects in other members that must be accounted for. Using a convergence approach we test for domestic “partisan” and electoral spillover effects in living standards, investment and unemployment and how electoral cycles influence the convergence process among the EU countries. The paper also tests whether elections in Germany and the USA affect macroeconomic outcomes in the other European countries, obtaining evidence, therefore, for the existence of internal and external political spillovers. The results, using panel data estimation techniques for the EU(15) countries, reveal some degree of electoral spillovers on growth, investment and unemployment and support the idea of more electoral coordination in Europe.